“The Structure of Ethnic Inequality and Ethnic Voting,” with Paul Kenny and Chunho Park. Forthcoming. Journal of Politics.
“Social Mobility and Political Instability,” Forthcoming. Journal of Conflict Resolution.
“Ethnic Inequality and the Strength of Ethnic Identities in Sub-Saharan Africa,” with Masaaki Higashijima. Forthcoming. Political Behavior.
- Link to blog post
“ Does Ethnic Voting Harm Democracy?” Forthcoming. Democratization.
“The Political and Economic Consequences of Populist Rule in Latin America,” with Paul Kenny. Forthcoming. Government and Opposition.
“A Two-Step Theory and Test of the Oil Curse: The Conditional Effect of Oil on Democratization,” 2018. Democratization. 25(3): 404-421.
“ Ethnic Inequality and Coups in Sub-Saharan Africa,” with Cristina Bodea. 2017. Journal of Peace Research. 54(3): 382-396.
“Do Civil Wars, Coups and Riots Have the Same Structural Determinants?” with Cristina Bodea and Ibrahim Elbadawi. 2017. International Interactions. 43(3): 537-561.
“ Inequality, Ethnic Diversity, and Redistribution,” 2017. Journal of Economic Inequality. 15(1):1-23.
“Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy,” with Mark Andreas Kayser and Jun Xiang. 2016. International Organization. 70(4): 687-726.
“Why Class Inequality Breeds Coups but Not Civil Wars,” 2016. Journal of Peace Research. 53(5): 680-695.
“Inequality, Economic Development, and Democratization,” 2016. Studies in Comparative International Development. 51(4):503-529.
“Ethnic Inequality and the Dismantling of Democracy: A Global Analysis,” 2015. World Politics. 67(3): 469-505.
“Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does Not Affect Democratization,” 2009. World Politics. 61(4): 589-622.
“Does Inequality Harm Economic Development and Democracy? Accounting for Missing Values, Non-Comparable Observations and Endogeneity.” Forthcoming. In “Oxford Handbook of Politics of Development,” eds. Lancaster, Carol, and Nicolas van de Walle. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [First View ]
“Inequality, Democratization and Democratic Consolidation,” 2013. APSA-Comparative Democratization Newsletter. 11(3): 21-24.
“ Does Economic Inequality Breed Political Inequality?” [Revise & Resubmit at Democratization]
Abstract: Does economic inequality generate political inequality? While there is a large literature on the effect of economic inequality on regime change and support for democracy, there is little research on its effect on political equality across socioeconomic positions. Yet democracy and political equality, though related, are distinct concepts. While political power tends to be more evenly distributed in democracies than in autocracies, there is substantial variation in both regime types. I argue that economic inequality should decrease political equality through multiple mechanisms: (1) it widens the gap in resources between the rich and the rest of the population; (2) it reduces participation; (3) it increases the incentives of the rich to influence policymaking; (4) it depresses support for democracy; and (5) it increases the distance in preferences over policies between the bulk of the population and the politicians, most of whom originate from the upper classes. Using three measures of inequality and data on more than 140 countries between 1961 and 2008, I find that economic inequality tends to increase political inequality, even when one controls for the level of democracy. Results also hold when the sample is restricted by regime type (e.g., democracies vs. autocracies).
“ Social Mobility and Democratic Attitudes: Evidence from Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa” (with Michael Miller) [Under Review]
Abstract: How does personal experience of intergenerational social mobility affect support for democracy? Does the relationship depend on the regime under which individuals experience mobility? While a large literature examines how wealth and economic inequality influence attitudes toward democracy and regime change, there has been little work on the effect of social mobility. We employ individual-level survey data from the Afrobarometer and Latinobarometer from 2000-13 to analyze how experiencing change in one’s socioeconomic position from childhood influences support for democracy. We find that individuals that experience upward mobility are more pro-democratic, even controlling for their education, current economic situation, and country-level growth. Further, the effect is stronger for individuals that lived most of their adult lives within democracy. We also show that the effect does not run through preferences for redistribution. Rather, it’s more closely related to fundamental changes in attitudes toward personal autonomy, social functioning, and the role of government.
“ Does the Content of Ethnic Cleavages Matter? Religion, Language, Race and Ethnic Voting” [Under Review]
Abstract: Why do some ethnic groups vote along ethnic lines while others do not? This paper looks at whether the objective characteristics of ethnicity – in terms of language, religion and race – affect ethnic voting. I address three sets of questions: (1) are ethnic groups that are objectively different from other groups of their country more likely to vote ethnically? (2) is ethnic voting higher among groups that are linguistically, religiously and racially homogeneous? (3) do some cleavages lead to more ethnic voting? The analysis uses a dataset covering 146 ethnic groups and 50 democracies worldwide between 1995 and 2014. I find that within-group homogeneity increases ethnic voting. On balance, however, there is little evidence that between-group heterogeneity or the identity of the cleavage affect ethnic voting. These results suggest that a group’s internal characteristics and the cohesiveness of its members play a key role in explaining its voting behavior.